Taiwan: Political and economic forecasts for the next decade

The risk report on Taiwan (May 2024) , published by BMI (a FitchSolutions Company), provides political and economic forecasts for the next decade.

Key findings:
Taiwan's real GDP saw a 6.5% year-over-year rebound in Q1 2024, which raises the annual growth forecast to 3.5%, though a slowdown is expected. Politically, Taiwan's democracy is strong but faces governance challenges due to party splits. Social stability is high, but an aging population poses long-term financial issues. Security risks include tensions with Mainland China, though a large-scale attack, invasion or full-scale naval blockade is unlikely due to the risks involved. Economically, Taiwan's strength in semiconductors is crucial, but relations with China could impact stability. The economy is expected to grow at an average of 2.6% annually through 2033. This growth will be driven by exports, particularly semiconductors. Monetary challenges persist, with no rate cuts anticipated for 2024. 

More: here 
Full report (BMI): here